Swing Vote Is Much Different Than Trump’s Base

Harry Enten: “President Donald Trump’s chief problem heading into the 2020 campaign can be boiled down to ‘like him on the economy, but not overall.’ Aggregating our last three CNN polls, Trump has a 44% approval rating and 52% disapproval rating among voters. On the economy, it’s been the inverse: 53% approval and 42% disapproval.”

“If 2020 turns out to be a referendum on Trump’s overall performance, he’s an underdog. Trump, though, would up his odds significantly by winning over half of the 9% of voters who like him on the economy but not overall — and he would be a clear favorite if he won the votes of all those who approved of him on the economy but not overall.”

“So how can Trump pull of this feat? A look at the numbers suggests he’ll likely need to do something very different than continue with his current base-first, hardline-immigration and racial-resentment electoral strategy. Trump will probably need to appeal well beyond his older, less educated and white Republican base.”