Peter Hamby: “They’ve each been dismissed by the pundit class and, predictably, the Republican establishment, which is doing everything in its power to box out even a whiff of a sedition. These Never Trumpers are scoffed at for two main reasons. First, it’s impossible to win the primary. And second, none of these Trump challengers have the kind of star power or message that might result in a serious weakening of Trump’s standing among Republicans. The first point is not in question: Trump’s approval rating among Republicans is anywhere from 79 to 88%, depending on the poll, and the last Republican president to lose a primary was Chester Arthur in 1884.”
“But the second assumption deserves more scrutiny. Weld has been in the race since April, to little effect in the media. But according to an Emerson poll from August, Weld is still somehow pulling 16% of the Republican vote against a sitting Republican president, a number that would give any White House political director pause. (Imagine how much media attention would be given to an Obama primary challenger running in double digits at this point in 2011.) The Republican and independent voters who will have a say in the primary, especially in a mercurial state like New Hampshire, are still only dimly aware of these upstart campaigns. Press attention is largely focused on the Democrats. Walsh and Sanford have not yet prosecuted their cases.”
