Jonathan Bernstein: “As Nate Silver noticed Tuesday morning, President Donald Trump’s approval rating has now hit a post-shutdown low. By the end of the day, and after a bunch of new polls, the FiveThirtyEight calculator had it at 41%. That’s not just the lowest since Trump recovered from the shutdown; it’s the worst, outside of the shutdown, since last September.”
“Looked at another way, Trump has been declining since hitting 43% on July 23. In general, a two percentage-point swing in approval rating isn’t much. But this particular two-point swing could be a big deal. A president at 43% could really be at 45% if the polls underestimate his support, and a president at 45% only needs to overperform his approval rating by a small amount to win the election, especially if the Electoral College is tilted in his direction. Of course, those “ifs” could go the other way: Perhaps the polls are overstating support for the president, who will underperform his approval ratings, and then be further hurt by the Electoral College.”
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