It Would Take Majority of Republicans to Remove Trump

Jonathan Bernstein: “The key to this exercise is that Trump’s removal requires a two-thirds majority, and thus a minimum of 20 Republican senators opposing him, but there’s virtually no way he’d be convicted by a 67-33 vote. For one thing, it’s hard to envision any grouping of Republican senators that would include 20 defectors out of 53; in reality, only about a dozen of them would realistically vote against their own majority. For another, there’s safety in numbers: A lot of mainstream conservatives who might be tempted to remove Trump probably wouldn’t do so if they could be identified as the deciding vote.”

“That suggests that any removal is more likely to get a healthy majority of Republican senators than a minority. But they aren’t going to turn against Trump unless they’re confident that the party is with them — which means, among other things, that it’s not going to happen unless Republican-aligned media has turned against him. We’re not talking about Senators Mitt Romney and Lamar Alexander being ready to remove Trump backed by Never-Trump pundits; we’re talking about at least some Fox News and talk-radio hosts who have been enthusiastic supporters deciding to oppose the president, and thereby giving cover to the bulk of Republican senators.”

“All this means that removal is unlikely! But if it did happen, the key point is that Trump probably wouldn’t pose much of a threat to anyone. After all, he would’ve just been abandoned by his own party. My guess is that he’d become a minor figure overnight.”