Jonathan Bernstein: “Is it likely? It shouldn’t be. Remember, the first rule of extended shutdowns — anything more than, say, a long weekend — is that they only happen when one side wants it and has the votes. It’s incredibly easy to keep the government’s doors open; all it takes is a one-page bill changing the expiration date, which could get through Congress in an afternoon. So even if the two sides can’t immediately reach an agreement, they could always keep the money flowing while negotiations continue.”
“Plus, Republicans should’ve learned their lesson by now. In 1994, 2013 and last winter, they thought a shutdown would be to their advantage. All three times, it turned out to be a really poor idea that didn’t work at all as a negotiating tactic and didn’t give them a boost in public opinion. This suggests they’ll be reluctant to go along with the president if he wants another one. And he’d need their support: If a temporary measure passes with the backing of both parties, Trump might well block it only to have Congress override his veto.”
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