Seth Masket finds a very strong correlation between presidential approval a year out from the election and vote share.
Based on President Trump’s 2019 approval rates, there are currently just six states that can be considered Toss Ups: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump would need to win nearly all to win re-election.
That’s identical to the latest consensus Electoral Vote Map, an interactive map where you can test your own assumptions.
?Political Trivia
Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
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Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
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Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
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Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
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Four questions a day.
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A new game every day.