Second Choices Will Decide Iowa

Arnon Mishkin: “In recent polls, over 30 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers appear to support a candidate who is unlikely to be above the threshold for winning delegates (which is 15%). In other words, during the course of the evening, 30 percent of people – more than support any of the top four candidates – will wind up caucusing for their ‘second choice.'”

“And so for the leading candidates – the ones on the debate stage on Tuesday – the goal is not just to win the audience over, but to make sure voters find them an acceptable ‘second choice.'”