Amy Walter: “The other important reality of this era is the degree to which national polls have become less helpful in assessing Trump’s electoral college strength. A president sitting at 42% approval, with ‘strong disapproval’ outweighing ‘strong approval’ by 10-12 points is not going to win the national popular vote. But, that doesn’t mean he can’t win the Electoral College.”
“And, in assessing the Electoral College reality, there’s no better place to check into than Wisconsin. It is ground zero for 2020. And, for a good reason. Trump won the state by a little over 22,000 votes. In 2018, Democrat Tony Evers defeated GOP Governor Scott Walker by just 29,000 votes. And, while President Obama had little trouble winning the state in 2008 (12 points) or 2012 (7 points), then-Senator John Kerry carried the state in 2004 by just 11,000 votes.”
“Even if the Democratic nominee manages to hold all the states Hillary Clinton won, and win back Pennsylvania and Michigan, they can’t get to 270 without adding Wisconsin (or picking up Arizona, a state Clinton lost by almost four points). Trump can’t afford to lose Wisconsin either — unless he’s able to pick up neighboring Minnesota — a state where he came within 44,000 votes back in 2016.”
Play with these scenarios on the interactive Electoral Vote Map.
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