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Warren May Get Endorsement Boost In Iowa

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FiveThirtyEight: “Warren’s odds of winning Iowa are a bit lower than other candidates in our forecast — she’s only got about a 1 in 9 shot compared to Biden and Sanders’s 1 in 3 shot, but she’s also not that far behind (Buttigieg has a 1 in 4 chance). The good news for Warren is that the Des Moines Register’s endorsement has historically given its recipient a boost in the polls — though we should be careful not to overstate its importance.”

“But on average, since 1988, when the paper first began endorsing candidates before the caucuses, candidates have gotten about a 4-point boost from where their polling average in Iowa was before the endorsement to how they ultimately fared in the caucuses (their vote share), according to historical polling average data from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model.”

A video shows Warren learning she won the endorsement of Iowa’s biggest newspaper.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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