FiveThirtyEight: “Warren’s odds of winning Iowa are a bit lower than other candidates in our forecast — she’s only got about a 1 in 9 shot compared to Biden and Sanders’s 1 in 3 shot, but she’s also not that far behind (Buttigieg has a 1 in 4 chance). The good news for Warren is that the Des Moines Register’s endorsement has historically given its recipient a boost in the polls — though we should be careful not to overstate its importance.”
“But on average, since 1988, when the paper first began endorsing candidates before the caucuses, candidates have gotten about a 4-point boost from where their polling average in Iowa was before the endorsement to how they ultimately fared in the caucuses (their vote share), according to historical polling average data from FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model.”
A video shows Warren learning she won the endorsement of Iowa’s biggest newspaper.
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