Biden’s Supporters Aren’t the Caucusing Type

Nate Cohn: “On the one hand, many regular voters don’t participate in caucuses. One-third of people who participated in a recent Iowa Democratic primary — usually considered all but certain voters — said they weren’t likely to caucus, and these voters backed Mr. Biden by 11 points in the Times/Siena poll. The large number of Democratic primary voters who seem uninterested in attending the Iowa caucuses is all the more surprising given that recent Iowa primary elections for Senate, House, governor or local offices were not particularly competitive and certainly did not attract national attention.”

“On the other hand, a presidential caucus — and perhaps especially Bernie Sanders — draws a large number of voters to the polls who do not vote regularly. As a result, it was Mr. Sanders who led the Times/Siena poll — by seven points — despite weakness among regular and consistent voters. His supporters may not vote so often, but he led among those who said they had caucused before, including in 2016. Most important, he led among those who said they would show up next week, and therefore led the poll.”