The Delegate Race

First Read: “Two contests down, and here’s the pledged delegate scoreboard: Buttigieg 23, Sanders 21, Warren 8, Klobuchar 7, and Biden 6. No other candidate has received a single delegate.”

“Remember, Democratic delegates are awarded proportionately, so to rack up big delegate hauls over the competition, you have to win big. (It’s why Sanders’ 1.5-point victory over Buttigieg netted the two men the same number of delegates from New Hampshire – 9. And it’s why Super Tuesday looms big.) Also remember, you need to hit at least 15 percent – either statewide or in congressional districts – to qualify for delegates. (Which is why both Warren and Biden came out of New Hampshire with zilch.)”

“Oh, and don’t forget the magic numbers. The first is 1,991. That’s the majority of total pledged delegates it will take to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot at the Milwaukee convention.”

“The second (for now) is 2,376. That’s when the party’s 771 superdelegates get added to the mix for the second ballot and beyond, and that becomes your majority for all total delegates.”

The FiveThirtyEight forecast now shows a 34% chance at a contested convention.