The Winning Democrat Has a Narrow Path

The Washington Post has a nice Democratic nomination simulator which allows you to make various assumptions about the candidates.

“You should also notice that, in most scenarios, it takes a while for a candidate to get a delegate majority and, therefore, the nomination. In some scenarios, no one may, meaning that the party gets to its convention without a clear nominee — the dreaded ‘contested convention’ scenario.”

“What may be more subtle is how hard it is to overtake a front-runner. Once someone jumps out into the lead, it’s tough to catch them, since unless the challenger earns 85 percent of the vote in a contest, the front-runner gets delegates too.”