Final Forecast for South Carolina Primary

FiveThirtyEight: “As for the South Carolina primary, our forecast views Biden as the heavy favorite, to the tune of a 29 in 30 (97%) chance of claiming first place. The only other candidate who has a meaningful chance of winning is Sanders, who has a 1 in 30 (3%) shot — a Sanders win is plausible, but it would register as one of the bigger polling upsets we’ve seen in a primary.”

“Biden’s rise in South Carolina happened very quickly — a week ago, he had a 2 in 5 (40%) chance of winning, slightly behind Sanders’s almost 1 in 2 (46%) chance. Then a plethora of post-Nevada polls came out showing Biden leading in the state by double-digit margins.”