Advice for Biden on Picking a Veep

Jonathan Bernstein: “Most political scientists have found that running mates just don’t make much of a difference in general-election outcomes — perhaps a percentage point or two in their home states, but that’s about it. So my advice to Biden or any nominee is always the same: Be risk-averse when it comes to the general election, and after that pick someone who would be good at the job and at the presidency.”

“If vice presidents can’t help a ticket much, they surely can harm one if they wind up involved in scandal. It’s not certain to destroy a candidacy or even necessarily hurt it — scandal-ridden running mates such as Richard Nixon in 1952, Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Dan Quayle in 1988 probably didn’t actually cost Dwight Eisenhower, Walter Mondale or George H.W. Bush any votes. But there is evidence that Sarah Palin was damaging in 2008, and it’s almost certain that the withdrawn selection of Thomas Eagleton contributed to the disaster that was George McGovern’s 1972 general-election campaign.”

“What all of these selections have in common is that none of them had previously run for president. And that’s my advice: Choose someone who has not only won a statewide campaign but has been vetted by running a national campaign.”