Coronavirus Hits at Worst Possible Time for Trump

Joshua Green: “The timing of the crisis couldn’t be worse for Trump’s political hopes. Academic research has consistently found that voters judge incumbent presidents based on the state of the economy in an election year—and that their impressions of economic performance solidify over the spring, which means now.”

“That bodes ill for Trump. The force and scale of the crisis, exacerbated by the president’s initial denial and slow federal response, paint an ugly picture of the economic effects soon to come. Forecasters are sharply downgrading growth estimates and expect the brunt of the economic damage to land in the second quarter. In recent days, Morgan Stanley forecast that U.S. gross domestic product would fall 4 percent in the second quarter; Goldman Sachs forecast a 5 percent drop; and Pantheon Macroeconomics, a 10 percent drop.”