The Electoral Map Gets Smaller

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows only four states as Toss Ups in the presidential election: Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“While the public health crisis has complicated the president’s path to a second term, we think it’s premature to make dramatic changes to our assessment of the presidential election. We’ve long thought the president’s chances of reelection have been around 50-50. In light of recent developments, it may be that the president’s odds are a little bit lower now, but we don’t think the data suggest going further than that at this time.”

Our consensus map of the top forecast still has five Toss Ups, adding Florida to the mix.