Nate Cohn: “Today, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by just under six percentage points among registered voters. Nearly four years ago, the final national polls showed that Hillary Clinton led Mr. Trump by around five percentage points among registered voters.”
“The similarities are even starker on closer examination. The polls depict an electorate that remains split in the same ways, with Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden drawing nearly identical numbers to ones the candidates did four years ago among white voters with or without a college degree.”
“But not everything is exactly the same, and even modest differences have the potential to alter the race. Mr. Biden shows early strength among older voters; Mr. Trump has made gains among nonwhite voters. There are early signs of an expanded gender gap. All of this could change by November, but all of it could be decisive in a contest with the potential to be closely fought.”
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