Ruy Teixeira notes the magnitude of the 2016-to-2020 shift of older voters from Republicans to Democrats could mirror the shift among voters from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016.
“The bipartisan States of Change project estimates that Mrs. Clinton lost this group by around 15 points. By contrast, the nonpartisan Democracy Fund + U.C.L.A. Nationscape survey, which has collected over 108,000 interviews of registered voters since the beginning of the year, has Mr. Biden leading among seniors by about six points. We are looking at a shift of over 20 points in favor of the Democrats among a group that should be at least a quarter of voters in 2020.”
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