Don’t Expect Much of a Convention Bounce

Harry Enten: “First, convention bounces have been getting smaller over the last few decades. Since 2004, the average convention bounce has been just 2 points. Some years, it’s been even less. Compare that to the 1968 to 2000 period. According to Geoffrey Skelley at FiveThirtyEight, the average bounce during that 32-year period was a little less than 7 points.”

“Second, the race for president this year has been incredibly stable. Biden’s lead has almost consistently been within a few points of 6 points. It’s never gotten higher than 10 points in the average and never below 4 points.”

“Third, the conventions are likely not going to be the newsmakers they usually are. The conventions, themselves, are going to be incredibly scaled back.”