Trump Heads Into Convention In Bad Position

Harry Enten: “There have been only three incumbents who were down by more than a point at the beginning of the convention period since 1940: Harry Truman in 1948, Gerald Ford in 1976 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. Only Truman, down by about 10 points, had a deficit that matched Trump’s at the current time. But even Truman didn’t have an opponent who was already pulling in more than half the vote.”

“The potentially good news for Trump is that because he’s in an unprecedented position, it’s difficult to ascertain his true chance of a comeback, especially during a global pandemic. Further, it’s noteworthy that Truman actually did win in 1948. Ford closed his 7-point deficit pre-conventions against Carter in 1976, but still lost by 2 points.”

“One way in which Trump is clearly in a worse position than either Truman or Ford is his own popularity. Truman’s net approval rating (approve – disapprove) was only about -5 points on the eve of the conventions in 1948. Ford’s was actually positive. Trump’s net approval rating is about -12 points.”

Washington Post: “He is confronting multiple crises at home and has been running a deficit in state and national polls throughout the spring and summer. If the election were held today, Trump probably would become the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992.”