What the National Polls Can Tell Us

Amy Walter: “At the same time, high-quality national polls are more consistently fielded than high-quality state polls. And, for all the criticism of polling in the 2016 election, the national polls were also the most accurate.”

“As such, the best way to think of the national polls is that they can help get us in the right neighborhood, but not necessarily to the correct address. The bigger the margin for Biden, the less important that we get the exact address. For example, a seven or eight-point margin may not be enough to put Georgia or Texas into Biden’s column. But, it’s enough to get him the states he needs to hit 270. The closer the margin is to four points (like we saw back in March), the less helpful the national polls become. And, the more we should just assume a close contest for the Electoral College.”