Supreme Court Fight Could Split the Trump Coalition

David Wasserman: “In the hours since Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s passing, several analysts have speculated the new, colossal Supreme Court fight will help President Trump by rallying traditional GOP voters behind him and shifting the focus of 2020 from the mismanagement of COVID-19 to a more straightforward partisan cage match.”

“That’s possible, but given the likelihood of the court to take a sharp right turn, a pre-election Supreme Court fight carries much bigger risks for Trump than the Brett Kavanaugh brawl in 2018.”

“Namely, there’s potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue and the Affordable Care Act to drive a wedge in Trump’s coalition. In 2016, much of his support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked Trump’s rhetoric on trade and immigration, but consider themselves pro-choice — especially non-evangelical, blue-collar women. And, these voters remain up for grabs in 2020.”