In 2020, the Ground Game Is All Trump

Joshua Darr: “Political scientists are trained to look for campaign effects in situations with unequal effort by campaigns: for example, if one candidate is airing way more ads or receiving outsized media attention. In 2020, the campaign ground game not only meets this definition, but also is lopsided in the opposite direction as recent elections. Trump has over 300 field offices, according to my data, while Biden has no traditional offices — a complete reversal of the typical partisan pattern…”

“The Biden campaign’s complete lack of offices is explained by the coronavirus pandemic, and isn’t without logic. Sixty-three percent of voters are uncomfortable with canvassers knocking on their door…”

“Overall, it’s not clear if Trump is winning at voter contact or if Biden is playing a completely different game on a separate field. Biden is staying on message and prioritizing public health guidelines, while Trump is pressing any possible advantage he can get — and possibly pressing his luck — by sending volunteers to meet voters and each other in person.”