Trump’s Gamble Falling Short

Amy Walter says that Donald Trump’s “thread the needle” re-election strategy required four main elements:

1. A united, enthusiastic and engaged Republican base;
2. A deeply flawed opponent;
3. Decent support among independent voters (Even as Trump ran up the score among his base in 2016, he also carried independent voters by 2-points.);
4. Third-party candidates siphoning off enough votes to allow Trump to win key states with a plurality as he did in 2016.

“Oh, and of course, it would also help to have a good economy, and not have a majority of Americans think that you have mismanaged a major health crisis.”

“Right now, only #1 is there for him. Even that rock-solid support from his base is looking shaky in the wake of his disastrous debate performance and COVID diagnosis.”