House Republicans Defy the Polls

David Wasserman: “District-level polling has rarely led us — or the parties and groups investing in House races — so astray. Prior to Tuesday, most Republican strategists were privately resigned to the prospect of a double-digit loss of seats. At this writing, Republicans may be on track to pick up between five and ten seats in the House, ironically about where our expectations started this cycle — but certainly not where they ended.”

“The suburban anti-Trump revolt that took 2018 by storm didn’t extend to 2020. Most Republican incumbents in white-collar suburbs didn’t just survive, they thrived — running well ahead of President Trump down-ballot. It may have helped that unlike 2018, when those voters’ only opportunity to express displeasure with Trump was in congressional races, they were able to split their tickets this year.”