Alan Ambrowitz looks at 10 forecasts of the national popular vote and seven forecasts of the electoral vote by prominent political science forecasters.
“When averaged and examined as a group, the forecasts came quite close to the actual election results, predicting that President Trump would receive 237 electoral votes and 47.9% of the two-party popular vote. (It now appears that Trump will actually receive 232 electoral votes and very close to 47.8% of the two-party popular vote.)”
“However, the fact that the averages of these popular and electoral predictions were quite accurate conceals the extremely wide variation in the accuracy of the individual forecasts.”
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