Alan Ambrowitz looks at 10 forecasts of the national popular vote and seven forecasts of the electoral vote by prominent political science forecasters.
“When averaged and examined as a group, the forecasts came quite close to the actual election results, predicting that President Trump would receive 237 electoral votes and 47.9% of the two-party popular vote. (It now appears that Trump will actually receive 232 electoral votes and very close to 47.8% of the two-party popular vote.)”
“However, the fact that the averages of these popular and electoral predictions were quite accurate conceals the extremely wide variation in the accuracy of the individual forecasts.”Save to Favorites