Geoffrey Skelley: “Name recognition, or whether voters and the public writ large have heard of a candidate, is one of the most important ingredients in a presidential nomination contest. We’ve found that since the mid-1990s, the eventual nominee for each party was already pretty well known early in the election cycle (at least 80 percent of voters, on average, had heard of them more than a year out from the general election). That means interviews, articles citing them as presidential hopefuls — ahem, like this one — and coverage of hypothetical polls about the 2024 race all matter.”
“But at the same time, there’s such a thing as unwanted media attention (just ask Hillary Clinton about her emails). That’s why most candidates want to maintain a veil of uncertainty on whether they’re actually running. It keeps them in the driver’s seat. The media is interested in you, raising your national profile, but you’re not held to the same standard as an actual candidate.”
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