The Known Unknowns About the 2024 Election

Jonathan Bernstein: “The folks over at FiveThirtyEight ran their first 2024 Republican presidential nomination mock draft last week. They were careful to label it ‘way too early.’ In a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have been quick to run an item about how that wasn’t really true. Indeed, in a normal presidential-election cycle, I would have already written four months ago that the 2024 contest was already underway.”

“This is not a normal nomination cycle. Or, to be more accurate: These are not normal nomination cycles.”

“We really have no idea whether either the Republican or the Democratic nominations will be competitive.”