The Three Big Drivers in 2020

Electoral data analysis firm Catalist released a major study of the demographic trends that shaped 2020 election:

• Biden “made significant gains among white voters compared to 2016, particularly among white college and white suburban voters.” Biden actually performed better with non-college White voters than Hillary 2016 and Obama 2012, but Trump still benefited from an overall increase in their turnout.
• Trump improved with African-American voters (doing 3 points better than in 2016), but thanks to increased turnout, the overall numbers really helped Biden, especially in places like Georgia.
• 2020’s historic turnout was largely fueled by the rise of young voters (in participation levels and raw numbers): “Millennials and Gen Z now account for 31% of voters, up from 23% in 2016 and 14% in 2008.”