Why the President’s Party Usually Has a Bad Midterm

FiveThirtyEight: “Political science has offered a number of explanations for what’s going on under the hood, all of which may contribute at least in part to the presidential party’s midterm curse.”

“These can largely be grouped into three categories: a midterm ‘reversion to the mean’ after presidential elections, a ‘surge and decline’ in voter turnout that changes the electorate from presidential years to midterm years and a broader ‘presidential penalty’ where the party in the White House gets punished regardless of how the country is doing.”