Could an Iran Deal Sway the Next Election?

Jonathan Bernstein: “So my guess is that as long as war doesn’t break out with Iran, President Joe Biden will be neither helped nor hurt by whatever happens.”

“That said, candidates do talk about foreign affairs during campaigns, whether or not voters pay attention. If the U.S. does re-enter the nuclear deal, Republicans will criticize Biden for that. If it doesn’t, they’ll blame him as Iran grows closer to testing a nuclear weapon. And campaign promises can be very important, whether they change election outcomes or not. Indeed, we’ve seen that twice now on this specific policy question: Donald Trump campaigned against the nuclear deal in 2016 and then withdrew from it, while Biden campaigned on re-entering and has worked toward doing so.”