The Right Policy Will Not Guarantee Victory

Dan Drezner: “In the past few months I have talked to folks across the foreign policy spectrum as the Ukraine situation has worsened. These include skeptics of President Biden’s overall foreign policy approach and miscues made during his first year in office. And the consensus is that Biden’s approach, apart from one gaffe, has been about as good as one could hope. He has consulted with allies, prepared for contingencies, and thrown the Russian state a little off balance by publishing intelligence before Russia has been able to surprise folks as in 2014.”

“All of this has raised the costs for Putin to move on Ukraine. The Russian economy will not be in a good way as things escalate. Monday’s weird Russian security council meeting revealed that not all of Putin’s team was as gung-ho about this move as he was. Nonetheless, Putin has clearly decided he is willing to pay the price to expand Russia’s borders.”

“Biden did almost everything right, and has worsened Putin’s strategic situation. Nonetheless, everyone will lose in the coming weeks.”