Is Donald Trump a Lock for the 2024 Nomination?

Jonathan Bernstein: “Yes, he certainly seems to want to be president again. But the idea that he’s invincible among Republicans is far from proven. His 2016 nomination was a narrow one, aided by all sorts of odd events — including a fair amount of luck. He also has an electoral record now, and it’s not exactly an impressive one; after all, he lost re-election, and Republicans lost the House (in 2018) and the Senate (in 2020) while he was in office. His tantrum over losing the presidency and his false claims about fraud have widely been credited for the loss of two Senate seats in Georgia. Republicans may trust Trump more on policy than they once did, but they should have even less confidence that he’ll be a team player now. That could mean more opposition from party actors than last time.”

“That leaves the question of whether voters would listen if party actors tried to oppose Trump. They certainly didn’t in 2016. Would it be different this time? It might depend on which party actors; if Fox News hosts and talk radio turned against Trump (or, perhaps, just strongly supported some other candidate) I could imagine it mattering.”

“And that’s without getting into the possibility that Trump’s various legal entanglements catch up to him. Or that he’s less interested in being president again than he is in extracting money from Republican donors, a process that might be disrupted if he formally declared a run for office.”