A Recession Would Only Deepen Democratic Woes

Charlie Cook: “In terms of politics, what’s worse than a train wreck? Democrats may be about to find out. Few argue that Democrats will keep their House majority next year. In my judgment, the over-under is a 20-seat net loss for Democrats. A loss of just five seats would hand the speaker’s gavel to current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.”

“The chances of Democrats losing their Senate majority are very high as well, in my mind, although the over-under is a more modest two or three seats…”

“If a recession does come to pass, Democrats would be headed into the 2024 cycle with a lousy economy and their president still at the helm. Worse yet, they’ll have 23 Senate seats up for reelection to just 10 for the GOP. Seven of those Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump carried in 2016, 2020, or both, while there are no Republican seats up in states that either Hillary Clinton won in 2016 or Biden did in 2020. If Democrats go into the 2024 cycle in a hole, it could be a much deeper one coming out of that election.”