Redistricting Ended Up a Partisan Wash

David Wasserman: “Our latest scorecard projects a Democratic net gain of between zero and one seat from redistricting alone – virtually no partisan shift from the current maps (and down from a four to five-seat gain in February). That’s a disappointment for Democrats who had hoped that favorable state court rulings in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and their own gerrymanders in Illinois and New York would erase the House map’s GOP skew.”

“By far the biggest new pro-GOP shifts in our outlook are in Florida and Ohio, where Republicans appear to be successfully circumventing state-based anti-gerrymandering laws that once looked like constraints on their ambitions, at least for this cycle.”

“The biggest shift from the 2022 remap? A continued decimation of competitive seats.”