How Will Trump React to the McCarthy Tape?

Punchbowl News: “Trump’s reaction to this incident is the key. If he dumps on McCarthy, that’s a major problem for the GOP leader. Trump can easily round up enough support within the House Republican Conference to prevent McCarthy from realizing his dream of wielding the speaker’s gavel. That’s Trump’s power here – he can’t make McCarthy the speaker, but he can stop it from happening.”

“However, Trump is savvy politically. He’s forgiven people for saying nasty things about him when it suits him. Hello Trump-endorsed Senate candidate J.D. Vance! But if Trump decides to use this against McCarthy, that would give the Freedom Caucus and other anti-McCarthyites within the GOP Conference cover to do the same. It might be enough to prevent McCarthy from being speaker. We’ll all see how Trump plays this one.”

“Don’t forget this either: McCarthy was the first senior Republican to visit Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late Jan. 2021, just over a week after the former president left Washington in disgrace. That was a pivotal moment for both men.”

Playbook: “All it would take is one wink and nod from the former president, and McCarthy would have serious problems getting the gavel. The former president has turned against those he views as unloyal Republicans for less.”

Trump and McCarthy have many of the same supporters and there’s a lot of incentive among them in making sure this doesn’t spin out of control.