Democrats Likely to Lose the House, Keep the Senate

The Economist: “In early September, our model expects Republicans to win 224 House seats, a gain of 11 seats from 2020. They achieve a majority of at least 218 seats in 74% of simulations. If the Democrats lose control of Congress, Joe Biden will no longer be able to pass laws along party lines. Gridlock will mark the rest of his presidential term.”

“But Republicans’ strong chance of flipping the House is the only good news that our forecast offers them. The model assigns a 78% probability to the Democrats’ retaining control of the Senate. Only a few months ago, any Democrat would have been thrilled with a one-in-four chance of holding the House.”