Do You Believe the Polls?

The Economist: “Our scenario may help prepare readers for what has become all too common: a broad misfire by the pollsters. If we repeat our simulations nationwide, the Democrats’ expected number of Senate seats, based on the polls alone, would drop from 52 to 50. The party’s probability of holding the majority would plummet from four-in-five to one-in-two.”

“In other words, if you believe the pollsters have fixed their problems from the last election, or that bias is specific to Mr Trump running for office, you should expect a Democratic Senate come 2023. If not, the race is a toss-up.”

Nate Silver: “My contention is that while the polls could have another bad year, it’s hard to know right now whether that bias will benefit Democrats or Republicans. People’s guesses about this are often wrong.”