The Betting Markets Diverge from the Forecasts

Nate Silver: “For the past few weeks, we’ve been trying to figure out to what extent, if any, Republicans have regained ground in the race for control of Congress. And the answer is… probably some, but not necessarily as much as the conventional wisdom holds.”

“In FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast, the GOP now has a 34 percent chance of recapturing the Senate. That’s up from a low of 29 percent in mid-September.”

“In betting markets, there’s been a much sharper shift. In fact, the markets have the race at nearly even, with Republicans having a 49 percent chance of Senate control. That’s up from a low of 33 percent in late August. The markets were in pretty good alignment with FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for most of the cycle; now they’re not.”