Are the Polls Still Missing ‘Hidden’ Republicans?

Nate Cohn ran an experiment where he paid Wisconsin voters to complete a poll.

“The data is still preliminary, and it will probably take at least six months, if not longer, before we can reach any final conclusions. But there is one immediate difference between the two groups, and that is in the polls’ response rates: Nearly 30 percent of households have responded to the survey so far — a figure dwarfing the 1.6 percent completion rate in the parallel Times/Siena poll.”

“That said, an initial glance at the topline findings may be sobering for anyone who hoped that $25 and higher response rates would break through to reach the coveted ‘hidden’ Trump vote. While there were important differences between the high- and low-incentive surveys — including some that hold promise for improving Times/Siena surveys and others going forward — there was not necessarily obvious evidence of a breakthrough to a vastly different pool of respondents.”