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What 2022 Tells Us About the 2024 Electoral Map

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Politico: “Iowa, Florida and Ohio — each of them carried by former President Barack Obama as recently as 2012 — weren’t really considered core battleground states in 2020. Now, after Republican blowouts in those states this fall, they should be removed from the 2024 discussion altogether.“

“At the same time, strong Democratic midterm performances in New Hampshire and Minnesota — a state which offered former President Donald Trump a rare offensive opportunity in 2020 — suggest they might not be worth contesting in 2024. Minnesota, which some Republicans regarded as a Trump sleeper state in 2020, turned out to be a mirage…”

“For Democrats, perhaps the most important midterm revelation of all was that the party is well-positioned to defend its ‘Blue Wall,’ the term applied to a northern tier of 18 states, stretching from coast to coast, that appeared to provide a structural advantage for a Democratic nominee — at least prior to 2016, when Trump blew it up.”

I’ve reset the 2024 electoral map. Leave your reactions in the comments.

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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