Raphael Warnock Has the Edge in Georgia Runoff

Inside Elections has a rating change for the Georgia U.S. Senate runoff.

“Inside Elections has rated this race a Toss-up for the entirety of the cycle. It was close on Nov. 8 and the finale is likely to be close as well. But it’s hard to see how Warnock and Walker each have the same chance of winning. Not only did the senator outpace Walker narrowly a month ago (and win two years ago), but Democrats are outspending Republicans down the stretch, Warnock’s image is better than Walker’s, Democrats have been hitting their early turnout goals, and Republicans lost the potency of a core message when control of the Senate was decided by other races. We’re changing our rating to Tilt Democratic.”

“A rating change toward Warnock should not be equated to a guaranteed win for the Democrat, nor does it indicate Walker cannot win. There’s just more evidence pointing to a Warnock victory, even amidst the uncertainty of turnout in an oddly-timed election. Continuing with a Toss-up rating would be the easiest handicapping decision, but it also wouldn’t accurately reflect the dynamic of the race.”