Punchbowl News: “The fate of Kevin McCarthy must be decided, including whether he has the votes to become the next speaker of the House. RIght now, the answer is no. And the signs aren’t good for the California Republican.”
“There are between five to 10 House GOP lawmakers who may oppose McCarthy during Tuesday’s speaker vote on the floor. Even close allies privately worry that it’s ‘hard to see a path’ for McCarthy to get the 218 votes he needs.”
“Yet so much remains fluid at the moment. And one can never underestimate how difficult it is for a member to publicly vote against their party leader for speaker.”
“If McCarthy were to fall, it would represent a new level of chaos for House Republicans, who have spent much of the last dozen years at war with the leadership of their party. Under this scenario, expect outright war between the middle of the conference and the 10 or so conservatives who blocked him from capturing the gavel.”
Playbook: “There’s no way to sugarcoat this: Seven years after his last, failed bid for the speakership, Kevin McCarthy’s dreams of wielding the gavel are again in peril. Despite years of political contortions aimed at winning over his critics on the far right, with just over 24 hours left until the critical floor vote, the California Republican’s math problem is getting worse, not better.”
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