The Known Fundamentals of a 2024 Campaign

Dan Pfeiffer: “In political terms, the 2024 presidential election is light years from now and we know very little about how it will shape up. Donald Trump announced his candidacy right after the midterms but has avoided the public since then. In fact, there is a chance that he will be sitting in prison when you are reading this. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, fresh off a big win in 2022, was leading the race to be the non-Donald Trump (but still very Trumpy) candidate. Mike Pence was actively plotting a campaign despite the fact that the Republican Party’s most committed voters recently endorsed his death by hanging. A bunch of other lesser lights (see: Cruz, Ted) and grifters (see: Pompeo, Mike) were also planning on running for President.”

“The candidates are not the only ‘known unknowns.’ What’s happening in the economy? How high is inflation? What’s the price of gas? Is Trump in jail? Is he running for President from a jail cell?”

“As a reminder of how fast things can change, the entire 2020 race was upended in early March when the pandemic began in force. Something similar happened less than two months before the election in 2008 when Lehman Brothers collapsed.”