Where the Invisible Primary Stands

Seth Masket: “Now at least so far, Ron DeSantis is enjoying the benefit of some national conversation about him as an alternative to Trump. But that condition is temporary – he hasn’t campaigned much outside of Florida, and we don’t really know how he’ll play in Iowa, New Hampshire, and elsewhere. Politically astute people outside Florida know his name but not much more at this point.”

“Also, there are other candidates out there. They’re not showing up in polls yet because people don’t know that they’re running, but they are. Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, and others are visiting the early contest states, raising money, making friends, asking for endorsements, and doing all the other things candidates do at this stage.”

“Trump wasn’t especially popular early in the 2016 cycle, but the key to his success was that his opponents within the Republican Party were divided among many different candidates. Those events could repeat themselves in 2024. But it’s also possible that Republicans who are worried about his influence just might have learned a lesson from back then.”