There Is No ‘Not Trump’ Lane

Jonathan Last: “A Nikki Haley candidacy is premised on the idea that she is Not Trump. The theory behind this is that the Republican electorate’s preferences in 2024 can be divided into ‘Trump’ and ‘Not Trump’ lanes and that if Haley can win the “Not Trump” primary and then consolidate those voters, then she can win a head-to-head matchup against Big Orange.”

“But I want to put this in bold: There is no ‘Not Trump’ lane.”

“Let me explain. The DeSantis challenge to Trump isn’t that Meatball Ron is ‘Not Trump’—it’s that he’s ‘Trump Plus.’ The DeSantis electoral proposition is that he will give you everything Trump does—all of the fighting, the illiberalism, the culture war, the lib owning, the news cycle domination, the mean tweets.”

“The only difference is that DeSantis is more electorally viable. In other words, Trump and DeSantis are fighting over the same 85 percent of the Republican electorate.”

“Nikki Haley and anyone else who jumps in trying to be Not Trump is fighting over the remaining 15 percent.”