Republican Primary Polling Reality Check

National Journal: “This year’s Republican primary electorate isn’t likely to be as unstable as 2012’s, simply because Trump commands a solid one-third to one-half of Republicans in multicandidate polls. The 2024 primaries are likely to look more like 2016, since the biggest question is, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’”

“That question is driving coverage and polling, and most reporters and political outlets are looking for a competitive story to tell. Trump vs. DeSantis gets clicks. It’s boring to say repeatedly that Trump is the front-runner and DeSantis might or might not be able to overcome him. It’s much more attention-grabbing to say, ‘Trump leads. No, wait! DeSantis leads. No, wait! Back to Trump,’ and to continue that pattern, getting clicks based on people’s hopes (or fears) that one or the other will end up the nominee.”

“This is where the media industry and the polling industry work together to create a toxic environment. Both need attention in order to function, because eyeballs and reputation equate to revenue. They feed off the emotions of those who are plugged into politics, and hope to gain some clicks among those who aren’t, by creating a narrative of a dynamic, shifting race. And in part, that’s true. We’re still more than nine months out from the first votes. We don’t have a full slate of candidates yet. Big-ticket donors are still figuring out who is their best bet. If the donor class doesn’t fully know yet, how do we expect Joe Six Pack who happens to answer a poll to know?”