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Trial Balloon · Ep. 188: Nothing to See Here

Republicans Are Back to Backing Trump

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John Ellis has some thoughts on Donald Trump’s indictment in Manhattan:

  1. Republican primary voters are back to backing Trump, for the time being, at least. His rural and exurban base never really wavered, but there was some wobble there. You could see it in the numbers. Not anymore. His base has re-solidified.
  2. Fox is back to backing Trump. The power of Fox News in general elections is wildly overstated… The power of Fox News in GOP primary elections is substantial. If Fox ignores you in its news coverage or trashes you during its opinion programming, the chances of your winning a GOP nomination for local, statewide or federal office are (much) diminished. Your fund-raising will be the first casualty. Your name identification will stagnate if you’re not “covered.” If the primetime hosts go after you, your “negatives” will rise, bigly.
  3. Many have told us that Trump can’t possibly win a general election in 2024. It is said that this indictment makes Trump’s general election impossible… There is no evidence (from the most recent public opinion polling) to support this assertion. In poll after poll (of late) Biden and Trump are statistically tied in a hypothetical 2024 match-up.

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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