Why Iowa Could Be a Problem for Trump

Mike Murphy: “Here is a significant factor to consider: When the DNC axed the Iowa caucuses, they left the 172,300 Democrats and independents who participated in 2016 with nothing to do on caucus night. Experienced local pols in both parties will tell you never to underestimate the importance of the caucuses to Iowa’s political culture, where participating is seen as an important civic duty.”

“Because they’re worried about caucusless Democrats showing up for the Republican caucus next February, Iowa’s GOP-controlled House is moving a bill to make it harder for non-Republicans to caucus. This would be a significant change. Historically, the Iowa GOP made it easy to just show up at the caucuses and register as a Republican because this was a prized party tool to gain new registrants. Now they’re less worried about making new Republicans than contamination from Democrats.”

“But even if the worried wing of the state GOP succeeds in creating new obstacles (like a 70-day pre-caucus registration requirement), plenty of Democrats will still be willing to become independents or even Republicans for a day so that they can participate—in Iowa, changing your party registration is easily done online.”