What to Expect from a Rematch

Seth Masket: “A key thing to note about presidential rematches is that they’re pretty rare. There’s been only one in the past hundred years, and just six overall. But those can be instructive.”

“The 1956 one, of course, was between President Dwight Eisenhower and former Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. Ike had beaten Stevenson 55-44 in the popular vote in 1952. Four years later, Ike actually improved slightly on his previous performance for a 57-42 win. This shines a light on a few things. First, there is an incumbency effect, which has been detected in many different elections; incumbents tend to do a bit better than challengers. Second, fundamentals matter! The economy was a bit weak in 1952 and the Korean War was in full tilt — this hurt the Democrat Stevenson as the incumbent party’s candidate (Truman had declined to run). By 1956, the economy was stronger, the war was over, and Eisenhower benefited from that.”